Thinking beyond the transaction.

The labor market still looks to me like “low hire, no fire”: hiring is restrained, yet layoffs remain limited. Initial claims remain near multi-decade lows, continuing claims remain near two-year lows, and the workforce continues to expand. As the article puts it, “today’s data reinforces the ‘low hire, no fire’ economy”—hardly a backdrop that calls for tighter financial conditions. My view is that inflation will continue to ease as energy costs normalize and AI reduces labor intensity across professional services and software. At the same time, demand for skilled workers remains acute in construction, engineering, manufacturing, the trades, and select industrial businesses. That divergence is central to the shift I describe as “software to hardware.” I do not expect a September rate increase; that is my opinion, but it is consistent with an economy that appears stronger than many headlines suggest while inflation continues to surprise on the downside.

Factory orders are one of the signals I watch because they can reveal what is happening beneath short-term hesitation. Consumers may be cautious, and purchasing managers may delay commitments when geopolitical events drive energy costs higher—particularly refined diesel, which matters throughout the industrial economy. I see those pressures as temporary noise rather than a change in the longer-term direction. The July rebound, including stronger core orders, reinforces my view that the U.S. and global economies continue to move forward beneath those pressures. AI is creating extraordinary demand for power, but that demand is also accelerating innovation in lower-cost energy and productivity. I believe the technology can materially reduce labor intensity, push productivity toward levels we have not seen before, and drive inflation materially lower. For owners in manufacturing, industrials, construction, energy, and the skilled trades, that increasingly favors the physical economy: hardware over software—and higher values ahead.

It is a live example of capital moving from digital demand into physical-economy assets—and of strategic buyers expanding into adjacent capabilities.

Buyer interest is not the same as sale readiness; clean financials, consistent reporting, and early preparation help protect value when scrutiny increases.

Improving buyer confidence can widen the opportunity set, but owners still need disciplined positioning and a controlled process to turn interest into an outcome.